UFC 100

Hello? (echos) Yes, I still write this blog. Yes, I'm coming back with another UFC pre-fight post. No, you most likely will not comment on it.

Jon Fitch (170) vs. Paulo Thiago (170)- Aside from his destruction at the hands of Georges St. Pierre, Fitch has been practically unstoppable. Thiago's a game fighter, but Fitch is a lanky five-star wrestler (does the Wildstar five-star hand gesture) who can take a beating like a champ if need be. Thiago doesn't have the technical prowess or the knockout power to beat Fitch. He is, however, undefeated and TKO'd a similar fighter in Josh Koscheck. However, Kos isn't Fitch, and Fitch is a more careful fighter. On that note, Fitch has a tendecy to take fights to the scorecards instead of finishing them. Prediction: Jon Fitch via Decision

Yoshihiro Akiyama (185) vs. Alan Belcher (186)- Don't be fooled by Belcher's recent win over Denis Kang; he pulled it out of his ass. Belcher is always dangerous with those hail mary chokes of his, but Sexyama (er, I mean Akiyama- damn you Joe Rogan and your verbal slip ups!) has good submissions too and real power. Put it this way: they both have a similar opponent in Denis Kang. Kang was handling Belcher convincingly for a couple of rounds before getting caught in a choke, whereas Akiyama knocked Kang out cold in the first round. Akiyama is also a Judo gold medalist who will undoubtedly be difficult to take down. A grappler with real power in his hands? I don't wanna get ahead of myself, but Akiyama may be the poor man's Dan Henderson, which is a compliment. There are, however, two factors which benefit Belcher. First, Akiyama has yet to fight in a cage, not to mention his first UFC fight will be on the biggest card in American MMA history. Not that a Japanese Judo gold medalist doesn't know anything about pressure, but lack of cage experience is significant. Second, Belcher is 6'2 to Akiyama's 5'10. Reach disadvantage hasn't hurt Akiyama in the past, nor has it really benefitted Belcher, but it's always something I look for in a possible upset. With that said, I'm a Judoka myself, and I think there's some unwritten law that Judokas don't bet against each other. I'm going out on a limb with this one... Prediction: Yoshihiro Akiyama via TKO, Round 2

Dan Henderson (185) vs. Michael Bisping (186)- The only way Bisping's winning this one is if Dan gasses, which does happen on rare occasion. Dan is also a much better fighter at 205 than he is at 185, and we've seen him lose to lesser fighters at this weight in the past. On the flip side, we haven't seen much of Bisping at 185 aside from three wins over shit opponents. Bisping's only loss came to Rashad Evans by split decision, which means that one judge thought he defeated the second best light heavyweight in the world. All things considered, Dan is still the superior fighter in every aspect of the game. Bisping had real problems with Matt Hamill, an excellent wrestler with good punching power, and many still believe he lost that match. Well, Dan's a former Olympic wrestler with a lethal right hand and better speed than Hamill. Athletes improve, however, and at the end of the day Bisping is the more proficient striker than Dan. Still, I don't see him overcoming Dan's wrestling or gameplanning, to say nothing of the right hand (which opponents have wisened up to and are looking for). Prediction: Dan Henderson via Decision

Georges St. Pierre (170) vs. Thiago Alves (170)- GSP might be the best pound for pound fighter on the planet; perfect in almost every aspect of fighting. He is correct, though, when he says Alves is the most dangerous opponent he's ever faced (OK, maybe second to BJ Penn the first time they fought). Everyone's human, but people still remember GSP's KO at the hands of Matt Serra, and watching Alves' highlight reel of vicious KOs does nothing to convince us that it couldn't happen again. "The Pitbull" is an accurate nickname, because that's exactly what Alves is. Since dropping to 170, he goes into fights with the same type of confidence, aura of intimidation, and "kill or be killed" mentality as a young Wanderlei Silva (similar but not same; Wanderlei was Alves times 50). Nobody wants to fight a guy like that. Nobody, that is, except GSP. GSP is on a mission to be the all-time greatest, and I doubt he's intimidated by Alves who is a sort of Johnny-come-lately to the rankings. On the other hand, Alves seems a bit in awe of GSP judging by the press conference and prior interviews. I can't put my finger on it, but he doesn't seem to be confident going into the fight. Well...would you be confident when facing someone as technically flawless as GSP? Alves definitely has a shot, but it's gonna have to be a flash KO or something. I don't see GSP being that careless, either; he's learned his lesson since getting overconfident against Matt Serra. Prediction: Georges St. Pierre via TKO, Round 3

Frank Mir (245) vs. Brock Lesnar (265)- All anybody ever looks at with Brock is size. As a lifelong martial artist, I fucking hate that shit. Granted, size DOES matter, and with the type of speed/size combination Brock brings to the table he could potenitally win any fight. That aside, people are giving Brock way too much credit too quickly. First off, Frank Mir is not a small man. He's a 6'1, 245 pound man with world class grappling and deadly striking to boot. Right now, he's the most motivated he's been since first entering the sport as a prodigy who was expected to dominate the heavyweight division for years. He's coming off a second round TKO of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, something nobody has ever done before. Not to mention the tiny little fact everybody's ignoring- he's already beat Lesnar once! Many people look at that fight in retrospect and say, "Awww, Brock should have won that fight, Mir got lucky, Brock won't make the same mistake again." Well what makes you think Mir is going to make the same mistake of trading wild punches with Brock again? I believe Mir when he says you can't learn to beat world class grapplers in six months. You can't. Brock may be improving, but he's still only had four fights in his career. Much of Brock's hype is based on his win over Randy Couture. Coming into this match though, Brock does not enjoy a near 50 pound weight advantage, or a 15 year age advantage. Mir is also not coming off a year layoff as Randy was at the time. With that said, Randy STILL arguably won the first round of that fight! Now you look at Brock's match with Heath Herring, who is similar in size (but bigger) than Mir, and you'll notice he couldn't finish him off so easily with strikes. He basically had to take him down and lay/pray his way to victory. If he goes to the ground with Mir, he will get submitted again. His only chance at victory is to throw wild Donkey Kong punches and hope on of them lands. He will otherwise lose in the clinch, lose a technical boxing match, and/or lose on the ground. Mir needs to keep his distance with in and out strikes, and wait for Lesnar to initiate the clinch. From there, it's all Mir. Brock has a fantastic shot at winning this match, but in my eyes he's still the underdog. Prediction: Frank Mir via Submission, Round 2